First of all, what is the meaning of the Oct. 31 Lower House election? What kind of changes will be expected by this election?
It will decide which party will control Japan for the next 4 years(the ruling party can choose the time of the next election during 4years),and whether this party can obtain the comfortable majority to pursue its political goals?
Currently LDP(Liberal Democratic Party)together with Komeito enjoys the majority. However,due to the LDP’s gradual loss of the popularity among public and electoral cooperation among opposition parties, it is certain that LDP together with Komeito will lose some seats. The question is how many?. And the degree of loss will determine the future development of Japanese
１：System The Oct. 31 Lower House election、
A total of 465 seats ―289 single-member districts and 176 proportional seats
“ What will happen？
Case A: LDP(Liberal Democratic Party) and Komeito,will gain 2/3 of total seats, which will create the foundation to change the constitution, will allow Japan’s Self Dedense Force to act together with US forces.
Case B: LDP will gain the seats more than 233,thus LDP can act independently ,for example to pass laws
Case C: LDP and Komeito will gain the half of total seats, thus the current ruling system will continue.
Case D; LDP and Komeito will not gain the half of total seats, then there will appear new movements to obtain the majority.
2 the past election results
Year total seats LDP Komeito leading opposition party second opposition party
2009 480 119 119 308
（Democratic party won）
2012 480 294 31 57
(L+K 325) (Democratic party heavily lost)
2014 475 291 35 73
2017 465 284 29 55 50
L+K did not gain 2/3
3:What is 2021 election different from 2017?
(1) LDP is weaker than in 2017,
(2) The opposition side is much more coordinated than in 2017
Rikken(Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan )、,Kokumin and Communist Party
unify behind the same candidates in as many single-seat elections as they can, so as to
avoid splitting the opposition vote.
Out of２８９single-member districts、about ２２０districts have single opposition candidates
4;The analysis of the current situation
At the end of August when Mr.Suga was prime minister, his popularity was very low, according to some public opinion surveies conducted by media,
his popularity was below 30%. This popularity lead to the LDP election to choose a new leader due to the anxiety that the Lower House election might be lost in case Mr Suga remain as a leader.
After the election of LDP leader, Mr Kishida gained popularity、the current rate of support for the government is about 50%. Thus , it is unlikely for Case D to be realized ,The same is the case A.
According to the surveys, including those done by the party which were not open to the public, Case B is most likely.
5/: Future development
The current assessment is based on the fact that Kishida cabinet enjoys about 50% of popularity.
However, there are the strong anti-Abe and anti-Suga feelings among public When we scrutinize Prime minister Kishida, there is few difference. If public shares this assessment, then his popularity will drop, which will affect on the result of the Lower House election.
Media date support oppose
Yomiuri 4-5 OCT 56 27
Yomiuri 14-15OCT 52 30
(CF. Yomiuri tends to be almost always supportive of the LDP government and its public survey scores higher figure of “support” than other surveys)
Media date support oppose
NHK ９－１１ ４９ ４６
NHK １５－１７ ４６ ２８