oldjapさん のコメント
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事実関係：１９日ロイター「日銀が拡大ＱＱＥの継続決定、景気判断も維持」
「日銀は１９日の金融政策決定会合で、「景気の基調判断は「消費税率引き上げに伴う駆け込み需要の反動などの影響から生産面を中心に弱めの動きが残っている」としたが、「基調的には緩やかな回復を続けている」に据え置いた。先行きも「緩やかな回復基調が続く」とし、消費増税の反動減などの影響も「次第に収束に向かっていく」との見解を示した」。
評価：
１：国際的には、国内総生産 ( 実質 GDP) が 2 四半期以上続けて、対前期比で減少した場合に「リセッション（景気後退）」を使う。
２：内閣府は１７日、７～９月期の国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）速報値を発表し、実質ＧＤＰは４～６月期と比べて０・４％減、このペースが１年間続くと仮定した年率換算では１・６％減となった。想定外のマイナス成長となった」と報じた。
３：日本の経済状況について、１７日
あったり前のこんこんちきだよ。だけどおれはレポート屋じゃないぜ。おれは孫崎にケチをつけるのを趣味としているだけの人間さ。
興味があるなら、次のご意見を読んでみろ。
Either one should get a handle on the public debt issue, despite the short-term risks to aggregate demand growth, or one should resign oneself to the sad fact that it is beyond the grasp of public policy to fix. Whether we are talking about Japan, the United States, or most of Western Europe -- the pattern is almost universal. Expenditures are outpacing tax revenues. Almost all industrial democracies are confronted with the same politically unattractive choices: raise taxes, cut expenditures (read: entitlements), or fall deeper into debt. And since the politically expedient choice has been to maintain the status quo by issuing more debt in order to protect entitlements, the problem just continues to grow and grow and grow. "I agree that economic restructuring is important and government programs should be cut," we often hear. It is then followed by "but please be sure to cut the *other* ministry's programs, not ours. Please be sure to cut the *other* group's entitlements, never ours. Ours is important. Theirs is not."
I suspect that some day macroeconomists will once again agree on the drivers of growth. Until then, we can all be sure to sit back and watch the national debt of every industrial democracy grow until bond markets have finally had enough.
When will Japan's bond market collapse? I don't have the foggiest idea. But I know one thing: the politically expedient choice today cannot be the financially prudent choice forever.
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